The Bitcoin bull run is a 4-year cycle where Bitcoin tends to go parabolic, pushing its price to new heights. Historically, Bitcoin has followed this pattern, with its price rising significantly before experiencing a major correction.
Last month, 9jacashflow shared a post about 7 cryptos we’re bullish on in 2025. If you missed it, make sure to check it out here. While we still stand by our prediction, there have been some recent developments that I’d like to share with the 9jacashflow community.
Initially, our price target for Bitcoin in the 2025 bull run was set at $120,000. Interestingly, I was chatting with Joanne, a former employee of 3EX.io, who now works with Vault.ist, and she shared her BTC price prediction for this bull run, which also happens to be $120,000.
While we’re confident that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in 2025, there are some new developments that I think are important to consider.
Keep in Mind: Predictions Are Tough
Remember, predictions are always challenging, especially when they’re about the future. So take whatever I share here with a grain of salt—these are just my thoughts and they may not necessarily play out as projected.
We’re Very Near the Top of the Crypto Bull Market
As of January 4, 2025, my charts show that Bitcoin is already in the overbought region. This is a signal that the market may soon cool off, and it’s probably a good time to start taking profits.
Why do we suggest taking profits when Bitcoin is in the overbought region? The reason is simple—price won’t stay in this region for long, and once it starts dropping, it could take 1 to 2 years to fully correct. Additionally, as Bitcoin’s price increases, we might start to see diminishing returns with each bull run. Gone are the days of 100x returns.
| Bull Cycle | Low Price | High Price | X Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | ~$0.30 | ~$32 | ~106X |
| 2013 | ~$2 | ~$1,200 | ~600X |
| 2017 | ~$200 | ~$20,000 | ~100X |
| 2021 | ~$3,200 | ~$69,000 | ~21.56X |
| 2025 (projected) | ~$15,500 | ~$120,000 | ~7.74X |
One Last Leg Up?
Given that Bitcoin is in the overbought region, we believe there might be one last leg up in the current bull run. Bitcoin could potentially break its current top of $108,000 and surge to $120,000. A $120,000 Bitcoin would put its market cap at $2.4 trillion, which is $1.1 trillion higher than its previous bull run peak. This would make Bitcoin the 4th largest company in the world, just behind Microsoft.
| Rank | Company | Market Cap ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apple | 3.785 trillion |
| 2 | Nvidia | 3.289 trillion |
| 3 | Microsoft | 3.134 trillion |
| 4 | Alphabet (Google) | 2.331 trillion |
| 5 | Amazon | 2.307 trillion |
The Role of Bitcoin ETFs & Institutional Interest
With the launch of the Bitcoin ETF and the significant institutional interest (in fact, many institutions have already acquired Bitcoin), we may see price manipulation as a result. Institutions make decisions based on data, and at some point, they might decide to sell off some of their Bitcoin holdings to keep the price down for an extended period.
While Bitcoin is currently in the overbought region, we could still see its price increase if nation-states continue to show interest in acquiring Bitcoin. We believe that many countries are quietly acquiring Bitcoin. As more nations buy Bitcoin, we could see a significant price increase.
What Would Bitcoin Look Like at Apple’s Market Cap?
If Bitcoin were to reach Apple’s current market cap of $3.785 trillion, the price of a single Bitcoin would be around $194,103, making it the largest company in the world.
So, What About Our Altcoin Bags?
At 9jacashflow, we believe the crypto market, like any market, will continue to evolve. Newer and better coins will be launched, so you should never get too attached to a single coin (or a small group of them). Always be evaluating the market, as even Bitcoin might face newer and more anonymous contenders.
Our thesis around altcoins is:
- One last leg up in altcoins: We could see a few altcoins perform exceptionally well in the final stretch of this cycle.
- Altcoins might be overvalued: It’s possible we’re already at the top for many altcoins, and we may see their prices decline soon.
- We believe holding 6 to 8 altcoins is a balanced strategy.
Whichever path the market takes, it’s crucial to evaluate your altcoin portfolio and consult with other experts before making decisions.
Final Thoughts:
We’re in the overbought region for Bitcoin, but we might still see one last leg up. This could push Bitcoin’s price to as high as $120,000, or even $194,000 if it overtakes Apple’s market cap. During this time, a few altcoins may also see a surge.
Let’s see how things play out. What do you think?
Let’s discuss this in the comments!
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Well, I think the bull is over already, IMO
However, I think one last leg up might play out to the 120k region, but chances are slim though.
Thanks for sharing anyways 😄
Nice outlook Saucekid.
Let’s see how it plays out.
Well, this then is a really short bull run. That’s quite disappointing.
Thank you for your comment Aemi.
Let’s see how it plays out.